Brexit - 23rd October 2019

Wake Smith Solicitors 23 October 2019

Wake Smith chairman Nick Lambert looks at the latest Brexit news...

Despite last week's crunch moment for the Prime Minister's revised Brexit deal, which saw a dedicated Saturday sitting in Parliament to seek votes of support, we are no nearer to a definitive way forward.

The vote was rejected, as a bill put forward by Oliver Letwin and tabled by the Speaker of the House, now allows Parliament to insist on the legislation behind the Government's withdrawal agreement being agreed upon before a deal might be passed by the House.

The Prime Minister submitted the withdrawal agreement to the House for a second time on Monday to negate time constraints running up to the Article 50 deadline, only for it to be rejected by the Speaker, giving the Prime Minister an option to put his EU withdrawal deal to Parliament so that they can scrutinise the legislation.

This, however, will undoubtedly result in amendments being made to fundamentally change the deal, with many cross-party politicians seeking a second public referendum on the deal - with a second option to remain in the EU, and many looking to secure more permanent ties to the EU single market and customs union.

The Irish border issue is also still proving contentious and the DUP has rejected the Government's latest dual-zone customs system proposal as unfavourable to Northern Ireland.

These wranglings saw the Pound reach its strongest point for five months, only to slump again once the Speaker of the House rejected a second vote request on the withdrawal agreement.

Despite this, the Pound looks to be strengthening slightly as traders largely anticipate that the EU will grant yet more time to the UK in agreeing its departure details.

Alongside the Parliamentary inertia that many see as an immovable barrier to Brexit, the Prime Minister has complied with the Benn Act and applied in writing to the EU for a further extension to Article 50, albeit tempered by a second letter in which he outlines his misgivings about the forced request.

Boris Johnson maintains his line on the UK leaving the EU on 31 October and the Government has accordingly ramped up its preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

This has left many guessing at his strategy and speculation now centres around the Prime Minister scrapping the withdrawal agreement if his timetable is threatened by Parliament and defaulting to a no-deal departure using Article 50 as the overarching legislation under EU law and subsequently pushing for an early election.

The prognosis is clearly that we will see more uncertainty, which is undeniably damaging for UK business and the economy, but it is important to acknowledge that even if the withdrawal bill can be pushed through Parliament in the next week, there are still many years of negotiations to be had on the details of any future trade agreements with the EU and other countries.

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