Wake Smith chairman John Baddeley looks at the latest Brexit news...
So here we are, in the last week of UK membership of the EU before the transition period begins on 31 January – running until the end of 2020.
Many people will be wondering about the changes we can expect as we start February off, but in truth, there is very little which will change or affect our trade with the EU, or with countries outside of the EU.
The UK will still act as a member state of the European Union and we will still follow the EU's rules. Travel to Europe will continue but the main difference will be that as we enter the transition period, we will no longer have a political seat at the EU and will not have any input into the function of the block.
This lack of voice within the EU after our MEP's leave Brussels is a key reason that the Prime Minister does not wish to extend the December Brexit deadline for any trade negotiations, so that the EU cannot force future legislation upon the UK, which the UK has no hand in shaping.
There are also other deadlines, which the process will be dictated by, starting as early as the first of March for the UK to agree its negotiating mandate with the EU, detailing the UK’s objectives for both the economic and security partnership.
If there is to be an extension to the transition period, it will need to be officially decided upon before the first of July.
Should negotiations work out favourably for both sides, then a new trade deal will need to be agreed with the EU by the end of November, a time-frame which the EU robustly claims to be unworkable.
Regardless of whether a trade deal is agreed or not, if no transition period extension is applied for, the UK will exit the EU on 31 December either with a ratified trade deal, or without.
Alongside this process, the Government will also be negotiating trade deals with non-EU countries, most notably the US, but all of these deals will be highly affected by whatever the UK is seeking to agree with the EU.
For the sake of businesses across the country, it would be helpful if the Government made clear what its trading requirements/pledges with all countries are, and how promising those talks might look at any given time.
It is, however, extremely unlikely that businesses will be given such information. It is more likely that the Government will play its cards close to its chest on any trade talks simply to avoid giving the upper hand to its various negotiating partners or providing potential ammunition to opposing political parties.
This is clearly the staring point for many in-depth trade negotiations for the UK, to be undertaken across many fronts and under continuing pressure from those who do not want to see the UK break ties with the EU.
What we may not see, is an end point for this process. These are negotiations that could run on for many years to come as our country begins the process of carving out a new place for itself, outside of the EU.
